“A couple of weeks ago the UK was doing pretty well,” mentioned Tim White at first of the latest on-line journey event hosted by The Independent. “Numbers were down. But at the moment cases are flying up.”
That was the introduction to the Race to the Sun on-line event, held on 30 June – timed to coincide with the latest addition of extra areas to the UK’s very brief checklist of quarantine-free vacation spot. But as an infection charges are hovering within the UK, different international locations are cracking down on British guests to attempt to defend public well being.
Trends in journey are inextricably linked with the worldwide image of coronavirus an infection charges and the unfold of Covid variants. So The Independent invited prime data analyst Tim White to hitch head of journey Cathy Adams and journey correspondent Simon Calder for an exclusive on-line event on the summer season of 2021 and past.
Tim’s predictions wasn’t at all times what the viewers – and the journey desk – wished to listen to. But his deep understanding of the topic is predicated on months of study of data starting from dependable to doubtful within the excessive. He has built a loyal following on Twitter for his daily bulletins.
“Italy, along with Germany, is the lowest of the big western European nations. Spain, worryingly, has started to go up significantly. Cases there have more than doubled today, and their cases per 100,000 over the past seven days is 77”. That compares with the UK’s present price, on round 200.
What the total video of the event beneath
Race to the solar: Where is the end line?
Greece is round 30, however Tim cautioned that opening up borders to Belarus and Russia has triggered a brand new wave in each Greece and Cyprus. He revealed the simple availability of faux certificates in some international locations of the previous Soviet Union.
“Certificates are so easily faked. Having been in Ukraine recently, there are so many people saying, ‘Oh, you a certificate? I can get you one’.
“Greece is now insisting on testing Russians coming in.”
The viewers learnt of the frequent and sweeping adjustments introduced in by Malta, Portugal and Spain within the few days because the inexperienced checklist expanded – in addition to the issues in proving a traveller’s vaccination standing.
Simon Calder challenged: “Is summer simply for the bold and the desperate?”
Tim White responded: “I think that’s harsh. Travel can be done safely. If this government is choosing to open society on 19 July, then it defies logic that we’re not letting people in who have been fully jabbed from any nation.
“It defies logic to lock people up in the UK and not allow them to travel.
“You either have confidence in the vaccination or you don’t. This government is in danger of lowering public confidence in the vaccine if they’re not allowing people to travel.”
The UK authorities says British residents shouldn’t journey to amber or pink checklist locations, however there is no such thing as a authorized restriction.