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Analysis: America’s longest war is ending. A nation is left wondering whether it was all worth it.

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But the American operation — launched by President George W. Bush when New York’s Twin Towers and the Pentagon lay in ruins — is functionally over.

In a wider strategic sense, the withdrawal underscores how the War on Terror — which US and allied leaders insisted can be the organizing precept of worldwide relations for many years to return — has pale because the dominant precedence. Years of war overseas sapped US hegemony and contributed to home discord that additional weakened its world footprint. A new period of nice energy competitors, marked by China’s rise and Russia’s belligerence now most considerations Washington.

And the Covid-19 pandemic has killed a whole bunch of hundreds extra Americans than terrorism ever did.

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After years of full-scale anti-terror blitzes, bitter land fight, nation-building, US neglect then recent resolve, counter-insurgency offensives, negotiating with the Taliban and easy grim holding on, the US will depart with many voters wondering why Americans are nonetheless in Afghanistan.

Unless issues actually deteriorate in Kabul, there’ll no scenes just like the final helicopters lifting off from the US embassy roof in Saigon after the Vietnam War. This battle, which dragged on so lengthy that some US troopers who deployed despatched offspring off to the identical battlefield, is ending largely out of the view of the American public. But simply as in that earlier extended war, there aren’t any victory parades, solely exhaustion, a sequence of busted US plans and offensives and a powerful political crucial to give up.

“We did not ask for this mission. But we will fulfill it,” Bush stated in October 2001.

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Two a long time later, many are left wondering if the US lived as much as that promise. That this is such a troublesome query to reply explains why it was such a harrowing expertise for many who fought and led the war.

The muted departure lacks the drama and resolve that drove Bush’s lightning offensive towards the Taliban and al-Qaeda. But it is an necessary second in American historical past, nonetheless. The greater than 3,500 US and allied war useless, the numerous extra maimed bodily and mentally and tens of hundreds of Afghan safety forces and civilians who additionally perished, deserve an accounting.

A new US chapter

The US exit will sever one of many closing hyperlinks with the tumultuous years of America’s wars overseas after the September 11 assaults, a interval that shook the nation’s feeling of safety in its personal continent, challenged its world fame and examined the Constitution.

As the President who is ending America’s “longest war,” Biden shall be on the spot for these solutions and what occurs subsequent. The Afghan war has pale from public consciousness to such an extent that there is no big groundswell of calls for to depart. But ending overseas wars has been one perception that has united progressives and Donald Trump’s voters.

There is kudos in being the president who ended it all. But the privilege begs the query of whether Biden is performing on political or strategic targets.

Then there is the query of whether the United States has a duty for hundreds of thousands of Afghans who thrived underneath its sponsorship of democracy and who now face the prospect of a brand new darkish age underneath the feudal Taliban, which stops little ladies from going to high school amongst different terrors. Indeed, Washington is making a hurried effort to extract hundreds of translators and different Afghans who helped US troops.

Inside Afghanistan, the Taliban is on the march, assuming management of districts countrywide. There are actual fears that the federal government will fall in what could possibly be a extreme blow to American status. While US forces are anticipated to proceed anti-terror operations from bases exterior the nation, some navy consultants fear such strikes will not be as efficient as an on-the-ground presence. The US intelligence operation will want rebuilding.

Yet all overseas wars depend on the consent of individuals at house. The rationale for US involvement — to battle the terrorists over there as an alternative of over right here, in a preferred phrase of the Bush period — is laborious for a brand new technology to grasp.

Biden, who was all the time one of many much less enthusiastic warriors within the war on terror abroad as vice chairman, channeled this disconnect when he introduced the ultimate US departure in April.

“We went to Afghanistan because of a horrific attack that happened 20 years ago. That cannot explain why we should remain in 2021,” Biden advised the nation from the identical spot in the White House Treaty Room from the place Bush launched fight operations 20 years earlier than.

Was it worth it?

The query of whether the war was worth it appears to be like totally different from Section 60 of Arlington National Cemetery, which holds ranks of the useless from the post-9/11 wars, than within the West Wing or Washington think-tanks.

But these brave Americans who perished early within the war might not have died in useless.

To start with, the war was successful. Al-Qaeda was gutted inside weeks. Dreams of democracy stirred after the rout of the Taliban by US and Northern Alliance forces — even when Osama bin Laden escaped to stay one other decade earlier than the US lastly exacted revenge in his Pakistan hideout. And the large-scale follow-on terror assaults feared by US leaders twenty years in the past by no means materialized.

But when the Bush administration diverted consideration to Iraq the war languished, and the Taliban regrouped. From then on, new US offensives and new plans to construct Afghan forces unfolded, none with nice success.

Confidential paperwork revealed by The Washington Post in 2019 instructed that senior US officials failed to return clear with Americans concerning the war — making optimistic assessments they knew had been false.

The paper reported, “US officials acknowledged that their war-fighting strategies were fatally flawed and that Washington wasted enormous sums of money trying to remake Afghanistan into a modern nation.”

For years, Afghanistan was the war that the US could not afford to wage however thought it could not afford to depart. But Biden made his determination to make good on an earlier endeavor by Trump to depart this 12 months.

“When will it be the right moment to leave?” Biden requested in April. “One more year, two more years, 10 more years? Ten, 20, 30 billion dollars more above the trillion we’ve already spent?”

Most dilemmas that presidents face contain dangerous selections.

If the Kabul authorities falls and there is a massacre, it shall be on Biden’s watch. If US diplomats die in a terror assault blamed on diminished safety within the nation, he’ll face a human and political catastrophe.

The hazard in post-US Afghanistan is acute. The prime US commander within the nation, Gen. Austin Miller, advised the New York Times on Tuesday that civil war was an actual risk and “that should be a concern for the world.”

Ever because the Eighties, when the US turned its again on Afghanistan and paved the way in which for the emergence of an anarchic terror-haven after arming mujahideen forces to defeat occupying Soviet forces, consultants have warned of the peril of ignoring the nation. National safety hawks level to President Barack Obama’s withdrawal from Iraq and the following rise of ISIS as one other cautionary story.

Retired Gen. David Petraeus, a former CIA director who commanded US troops in Afghanistan and Iraq, stated he didn’t see a risk to the homeland proper now. But he warned at a Washington Post occasion Monday that the group has proven “no signs that it’s going to cut ties with al-Qaeda.”

Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated in an interview with Italy’s RAI TG1 on Tuesday “al-Qaeda in Afghanistan currently does not represent a real threat to the United States, to Italy, to any of the other countries.”

The argument that the US wants to remain to forestall a brand new terror haven is undercut by the truth that extremists function from many failed states throughout the globe — and are focused by the US with out big troop garrisons.

This logic helped Biden conclude in his April speech that the US had achieved its clear targets when it went to war since bin Laden is useless and al-Qaeda is degraded, earlier than including: “it’s time to end the forever war.”

CNN’s Barbara Starr, Nicole Gaouette and Kevin Liptak contributed to this report.

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